The following is a short article based upon a review written by Jason Hommel of silverstockreport.com I felt it was worth sharing. The historic price ratio of silver to gold shows that about 10 ounces of silver would buy one ounce of gold, a 10:1 ratio. Recently, the ratio is about a 50:1 ratio (with silver at $20/oz., and gold at $1000/oz.) As the silver to gold ratio returns to historic values, from 50:1 to 10:1, you may make over 5 times more money investing in silver, than gold!
Silver prices may rise to exceed the 10:1 ratio, for the following reasons:
More than all of the silver produced by the mines each year is consumed by industry, which leaves little to no room for investment demand. A marginal increase in investment demand will drive prices sky high.
Most silver is produced as a by-product of mining gold, copper, zinc, or lead. Higher silver prices might not substantially increase the amount of silver mined each year. In 1980, when silver prices went up to $50/oz., less silver was mined than in 1979!
Additionally, as paper money continues to falter, people will buy silver and gold without regard to price!
Each year, silver mines produce about 650 million ounces of silver. 200 million ounces come from recycling and about 100 million ounces come from investor or government sales. Of that total:
• about 42% is consumed by industrial use
• about 28% consumed by jewelry
• about 20% consumed by photography
• about 5% consumed in coins and medallions
Silver prices may rise to exceed the 10:1 ratio, for the following reasons:
More than all of the silver produced by the mines each year is consumed by industry, which leaves little to no room for investment demand. A marginal increase in investment demand will drive prices sky high.
Most silver is produced as a by-product of mining gold, copper, zinc, or lead. Higher silver prices might not substantially increase the amount of silver mined each year. In 1980, when silver prices went up to $50/oz., less silver was mined than in 1979!
Additionally, as paper money continues to falter, people will buy silver and gold without regard to price!
Each year, silver mines produce about 650 million ounces of silver. 200 million ounces come from recycling and about 100 million ounces come from investor or government sales. Of that total:
• about 42% is consumed by industrial use
• about 28% consumed by jewelry
• about 20% consumed by photography
• about 5% consumed in coins and medallions
That's 95% of total available silver each year! This implies either a "surplus", or "investment demand", of about 5% total. At $20/oz., that's only $1 billion per year of net investment demand. Since the 1950's, silver use and consumption, has made silver more rare than gold, in above ground, refined and deliverable forms. Estimates suggest there are 200-300 million ounces of refined, above ground silver available to the market at the present time. There are about 125 million ounces of silver at the NYMEX, the big commodity exchange in New York. The ETF SLV has about 180 million ounces.
Each silver contract at the NYMEX is a promise. There are too many contracts, too many promises to deliver silver that may not exist. Each contract is for 5000 ounces. There are often over 200,000 contracts for 5000 ounces, that's a total of 1000 million ounces of silver promised to be delivered. With recent market trends of defaults and bankruptcies, these contracts are at risk of default. Yet the exchange has only about a third of that in real silver. How can they promise to deliver more silver than exists? If they fail to deliver silver, then confidence in the world's entire financial system may collapse. Industrial users of silver may have to shut down their factories. To prevent this, users will bid silver prices much higher.
Due to the risk of default in silver futures contracts, I suggest that you avoid buying futures contracts, avoid options, and avoid storing your silver with anyone else! Take delivery of your silver, and put your silver in your own safe!
Over 100 years of this "demonetization" has caused a serious drop in silver's value, and this trend is about to be reversed as investors re-learn that silver is a great store of value because of its intrinsic properties.
As paper money continues to waver, the neglect of silver's use as money will end. Once again, silver will be valued based on other measures of value, such as a day's wage, or a ratio to gold.
Owen, we have a lot in common my friend! We just need to educate the masses. Last 100 ounces of silver was purchased from Jason Hommel @ http://www.seekbullion.com Excellent service.
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